The Pentagon is Determined,
Africa is Divided.

The launching of the New US African Command (AFRICOM) is slowly becoming a reality. On September 22-23 the US Department of Defense is planning to hold a US-Africa meeting in Washington to discuss a New Africa Military Command (AFRICOM) deployment. Ministers of Defense of 35 African countries, AU officials and representatives of regional organizations as well as prominent figures from Africa have been invited as participants. High-ranking officials will represent the American side from the departments of Defense and State and from the US Agency for International Development. The aim of the meeting is to convince Africans in the expediency of creating AFRICOM. The move comes at an already precarious time in U.S-Africa relations, and have greatly worried many Africans including Washington’s African allies, who see the steps as a prelude to eventual domination and fear that they will make ongoing conflicts in Africa much more difficult to resolve.

While we approach the formal announcement of AFRICOM, a lot of skepticism is emerging what American interests are. The usual suspect is resource, particularly petroleum. One area, which the US has recently come to pay close attention to, is the Gulf of Guinea. Two members of OPEC are in the region. There are also two close US allies in close proximity to the area as well (Liberia and Senegal). Majority of African countries are either against, ambivalent or skeptical about it. Only some small countries welcomed the initiative, seeking particular advantage or probably as a counterweight to their big neighbors. The opposition is stronger in Northern and southern Africa. While the Maghreb (Arab) countries detest the whole idea, while Egypt is made to be treated separately and is outside of the orbit of AFRICOM mainly due to other strategic issues concerning the Middle East and decades long military details with the US. This is one controversial issue.
Apart from countries like Botswana, which already allowed US military base- in the face of opposition from neighboring SADC countries- almost all southern African countries are against the move. Predictably, East Africa is as divided as before and doesn’t have a common position on the issue. Some African countries may want to work against having a US presence in the region. But those who don’t want the US may be playing internal politics and or propping up crucial allies. They have been holding talks with neighboring states as well as the African Union to see how the US effort to set up a base can be prevented.

The difficulties and resistance the US met while pushing through the idea and concept of AFRICOM seem to have triggered the next meeting. The series of explanatory talks and inconclusive consultations over the past few months with leaders of several countries on the continent including Algeria, Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Ethiopia, the African Union and some others reportedly yielded little enthusiasm for the prospect of a major US military presence in Africa. Public opinion is really against getting into bed with the US. There is no common African position as the opposition to the whole idea of AFRICOM. Partly, the cool response reflects African governments’ fears of becoming targets for terrorism should they agree to host AFRICOM. Once established, AFRICOM could also dictate African governments and shape internal conflicts. Even though the newest element in the US Military Command Structure AFRICOM (African Command) doesn’t officially come online until the 1st of October, many in Africa and their peace and security architectures do not want an American presence on the continent due to the fear of having the US interfere in what they think is their area of responsibility. The countries visited by US officials are also thought to have expressed misgivings about the political implications of the US initiative, which is seen as potentially undercutting the African Union’s efforts to develop its own security capabilities. This raises the question- who would be in charge when there is a major crisis brewing? The AU, REC’s or AFRICOM? How would this undermine the consolidation of Africa’s regional peace and security architectures?

For some fears surrounding the launching of AFRICOM are not unique or may be unfounded. Already, Africa has taken a center stage. Around 70 percent of the work at the headquarters of the European command in Stuttgart is about Africa. Thus it is natural that Africa becomes a new command by its own. As much as AFRICOM is a new source of concern U.S. military bases are already appearing in Africa with the one in the Horn of Africa (in Djibouti) almost a fate accomplished and the one in Botswana on the rise. Both are being expanded and reinforced. Similar maneuvers are being made in some locations in West Africa. For one thing, the hegemonic and expansionist label is nothing new, and thus would do little to change the current state of play. For another, AFRICOM represents a much greater threat than U.S. African allies typically recognizes.

Seeking to dispel these misgivings and suspicions and ensure safe landing on African soil, the US officials at the Washington meeting are going to ‘educate’ the African elite and convince it that the aims of AFRICOM are purely humanitarian and the new command is not being created in response to China’s growing influence in Africa nor as a means of enforcing US access to Africa’s oil and other natural resources. However this does not mean that the US does not have countries that wish to be placed under the US defense umbrella. Botswana and Liberia have expressed interest in hosting forward bases for AFRICOM. They realize that the US would improve the infrastructure in the countries as well as generate jobs. So they realize that potential improvement in their countries.

Having met the rebuff by African states to its massive military presence on the continent, the Pentagon is trying to hush up the negative reaction on AFRICOM. No matter what the Africans would say at the Washington gathering no body is sure their point of view about the US initiative is going to be taken into account. The decision has already been made. The indication is that despite the stance of African leaders right after consultations Washington is expected to declare AFRICOM a sub-unified Command to European Command with a prospect to be a fully unified Command about a year later. Nevertheless, the verbal, albeit toothless, opposition to AFRICOM continues. But it doesn’t seem to deter the U.S. from pushing the process and establish AFRICOM. If at this stage US authorities are not listening seriously to African apprehensions one can only imagine what would happen when AFRICOM sets its foot on African soil

Medhane Tadesse of CPRD is a long time specialist on issues of peace and security in the Horn of Africa. He can be reached at mt3002et@yahoo.com

September 21, 2007