What next for Somalia

somalia seems to be going forward following the routing of the Union of Islamic courts from key towns and areas of the Somalia. The Transitional Federal government seems to finally be going about the tasks that it was first elected to do years ago that is to administer a nation that had for the past 16 years been gutted with one conflict after another. The UIC which got into power in Mogadishu and other parts of Somalia came about from the lack of a strong government as well as public dissatisfaction from 16 years of civil war. Even strong critics of the UIC would have to concede that the UIC had brought about a semblance of stability never before seen during Somalia’s continued civil war as the UIC continued to gain power and started curtailing civil liberties through a strict interpretation of Islam alarm bells started ringing across the region and elsewhere caused by the increased fears of the advent of a Taliban style government growing roots in the Horn of Africa. The TFG during this period was having trouble reining in their own causing a severe rift within the cabinet prompting new elections under the background of bickering over a capital city.

The Inter Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and various partnered that have over the years been pushing for the establishment of a Somalia unitary government for obvious reasons could not sit back and see the efforts they had put in over the years diminish into another civil war. The AU, the UN and the international community at large did their best in terms of recognizing the UIC as a force to be reckoned and had opted towards opening dialogue between the two sides. The relative weakness of the TFG at many points have become a liability to the efforts made towards Somali reconciliation. Finally Ethiopia opted for a daring move to shift the balance of power in favor of the TFG that had received international recognition The days long military expedition had brought about a dramatic change in Somalia politics which some observers fear would result in guerilla tactics on behalf of the UIC

For any chances of an African peacekeeping which the UN and other allies are pushing one has to take stock of what has happened in Sudan. Darfur should act as an object lesson for the African Union (AU) on what needs to be done to ensure similar political tussles, delays, and logistical problems do not recur when African peacekeeping forces are finally deployed in Somala. Much will depend on the political will of African countries and the world’s powerful nations to make sure that Somalia does not revert into chaos. Disarming the militias has not been as effective so far with the deadline to disarm ending yesterday. Another worrying factor here also includes the issue of the notorious warlords that use tribal alliances to wreak havoc on the population, these warlords too pose a strong threat towards reverting Somalia into anarchy. Peacekeeping in Somalia is crucial if we are top really see Africa finally bring solutions to African problems we should not fail Somalia all those involved need to work together rather than against each other if they we are to see an end to Somalia’s plight. The military gains gained during this conflict should not be squandered over political bickering.•

January 5, 2007